· Referee G. F. Robertsson · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Keflavik and 2.78 for KR Reykjavik, a combined total of 4.81. That distribution gives KR Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
KR Reykjavik to Win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.5%
- 1–26.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–14.7%
Why the model likes this
Keflavik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KR Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 28% / 18% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Keflavik and 2.78 for KR Reykjavik, a combined 4.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 81%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Recent form
Keflavik
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Thor Akureyri · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjarnan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KA Akureyri · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · H vs IA Akranes · 5-2 (W)
KR Reykjavik
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | FH hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -10 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -28 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.