Lanus vs Independiente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lanus and 0.73 for Independiente, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Lanus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Lanus or Draw

73.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.97 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lanus win40%

Draw34%

Independiente win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–018.2%
1–017.7%
0–113.3%
1–112.9%
2–08.6%

Why the model likes this

Lanus home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lanus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 34% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Lanus and 0.73 for Independiente, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Lanus

2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)

Independiente

Head-to-head

2026-02-13T23:00:00.000Z · Lanus 0-2 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-10-13T00:15:00.000Z · Lanus 2-0 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-04-06T18:30:00.000Z · Lanus 1-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-10-18T22:15:00.000Z · Lanus 0-2 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2023-05-27T23:30:00.000Z · Lanus 1-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-08-13T21:00:00.000Z · Lanus 1-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-05-01T00:30:00.000Z · Lanus 1-0 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · Lanus 1-0 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-02-16T00:30:00.000Z · Lanus 1-0 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2020-12-17T22:15:00.000Z · Lanus 3-1 Independiente (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
4	Deportivo Riestra	4	2	0	2	3	6
5	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
6	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
7	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
8	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Boca Juniors	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Newells Old Boys	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Union Santa Fe	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Platense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	Estudiantes L.P.	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	San Lorenzo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Gimnasia L.P.	4	3	0	1	3	9
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Belgrano Cordoba	4	2	1	1	2	7
5	Tigre	4	2	1	1	2	7
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Independ. Rivadavia	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.