Leeds vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Leeds and 1.41 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Leeds or Draw

63.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Leeds win38%

Draw25%

Brentford win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
2–18.5%
1–08.3%
1–28.2%
0–18.1%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leeds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Leeds and 1.41 for Brentford, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Leeds

Brentford

Head-to-head

2026-03-21T20:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
2025-12-14T16:30:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Brentford (Premier League)
2023-01-22T14:00:00.000Z · Leeds 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-5 Brentford (Premier League)
2022-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-1 Brentford (Premier League)
2021-12-05T14:00:00.000Z · Leeds 2-2 Brentford (Premier League)
2020-02-11T19:45:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Brentford (Championship)
2019-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · Leeds 1-0 Brentford (Championship)
2019-04-22T16:15:00.000Z · Leeds 0-2 Brentford (Championship)
2018-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · Leeds 1-1 Brentford (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.