Lille vs Rennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Lille and 1.37 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Lille to Win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lille win53%

Draw21%

Rennes win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–19.2%
2–06.9%
1–06.7%
2–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Lille home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rennes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Lille and 1.37 for Rennes, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Lille

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)

Rennes

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.