Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.56 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Liverpool or Draw

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win45%

Draw22%

Newcastle win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–18.8%
1–27.4%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Liverpool and 1.56 for Newcastle, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Newcastle

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.