Segra Field · Referee B. Meyer · Analysis updated 02:52 UTC
Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Loudoun United and 0.95 for Hartford Athletic, a combined total of 1.94. That distribution gives Loudoun United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws roughly 65% of the time.
Model pick
Loudoun United or Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.4%
- 1–014.3%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.1%
Why the model likes this
Loudoun United home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loudoun United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Loudoun United and 0.95 for Hartford Athletic, a combined 1.94 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Loudoun United
- 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleston Battery · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartford Athletic · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Indy Eleven · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 0-2 (L)
Hartford Athletic
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 8 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 5 | Lexington | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.