Parc Olympique Lyonnais · Referee S. Marciniak · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Lyon vs Sparta Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lyon and 2.00 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sparta Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Praha to Win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Lyon and 2.00 for Sparta Praha, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Sparta Praha to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Lyon
Sparta Praha
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.