Estadio La Rosaleda · Analysis updated 02:37 UTC
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Malaga and 1.03 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Malaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Malaga or Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.8%
Why the model likes this
Malaga home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Malaga and 1.03 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.42 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.05 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.48 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.60 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.18 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.10 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 6.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 9.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.05 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 2.05 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.73 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Malaga
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-3 (D)
Deportivo La Coruna
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.