Manchester City vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Manchester City and 0.73 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City to Win

70.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.14 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Manchester City win70%

Draw19%

Crystal Palace win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–013.0%
1–012.2%
2–19.5%
3–09.3%
1–18.8%

Why the model likes this

Manchester City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Manchester City and 0.73 for Crystal Palace, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Manchester City

2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs K-League Stars · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-1 (D)

Crystal Palace

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.