Manchester City vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Manchester City and 1.03 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City to Win

52.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Manchester City win52%

Draw24%

Fulham win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–011.3%
2–19.7%
2–09.4%
0–16.9%

Why the model likes this

Manchester City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Manchester City and 1.03 for Fulham, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Manchester City

2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs K-League Stars · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-1 (D)

Fulham

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.