Manchester United vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.37 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Manchester United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester United to Win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.14 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Manchester United win55%

Draw21%

Liverpool win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.8%
2–06.8%
3–16.7%
2–26.4%

Why the model likes this

Manchester United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Manchester United and 1.37 for Liverpool, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Manchester United

2026-08-15T14:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 5-0 (W)

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.