Melbourne Srbija vs Port Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Melbourne Srbija and 0.49 for Port Melbourne, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Melbourne Srbija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws roughly 32% of the time.

Model pick

Melbourne Srbija to Win

68.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.49

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Melbourne Srbija win68%

Draw22%

Port Melbourne win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–018.9%
2–016.3%
0–010.9%
3–09.4%
1–19.2%

Why the model likes this

Port Melbourne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne Srbija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 22% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Melbourne Srbija and 0.49 for Port Melbourne, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Recent form

Melbourne Srbija

Port Melbourne

2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Knights · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria NPL 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	24	16	3	5	27	51
2	Brunswick Juventus FC	24	15	2	7	14	47
3	Northcote City	23	14	4	5	17	46
4	Melbourne Victory II	23	12	4	7	17	40
5	Bulleen Lions	23	11	6	6	14	39
6	Melbourne Srbija	24	11	3	10	3	36
7	Eltham Redbacks FC	24	10	5	9	15	35
8	Brunswick City	24	10	3	11	2	33
9	Manningham United Blues	24	9	3	12	-14	30
10	North Geelong Warriors	24	9	1	14	-18	28
11	Western United II	23	8	1	14	-17	25
12	Langwarrin	23	6	5	12	-13	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	23	5	5	13	-9	20
14	Port Melbourne	24	4	5	15	-38	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.