· Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Metz vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Metz and 1.13 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Metz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.
Model pick
Metz to Win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Fortuna Sittard away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Metz and 1.13 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Metz
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · Metz 3-1 Fortuna Sittard (Friendlies Clubs)
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.