Riverside Stadium · Analysis updated 05:16 UTC
Middlesbrough vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Preston, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Middlesbrough to Win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Why the model likes this
Middlesbrough home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Preston, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Middlesbrough
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-1 (D)
Preston
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.