Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.40 for Los Angeles FC, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Los Angeles FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Los Angeles FC to Win

47.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Minnesota United FC win25%

Draw27%

Los Angeles FC win48%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.4%
1–112.7%
0–09.5%
0–29.4%
1–09.0%

Why the model likes this

Minnesota United FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Los Angeles FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.40 for Los Angeles FC, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Minnesota United FC

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 0-0 (D)

Los Angeles FC

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T20:45:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-02-22T21:45:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-30T02:45:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-2 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-03-17T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 2-0 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-10-05T02:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-5 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-07-16T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-05-02T02:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-2 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)
2021-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-1 Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.