· Referee R. Klein · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.56 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Flamengo to Win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Mirassol home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flamengo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Mirassol and 1.56 for Flamengo, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 4.00 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.40 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 1.90 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 6.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.10 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.77 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.95 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Mirassol
- 2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
Flamengo
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-06T21:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 3-3 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2025-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · Mirassol 1-2 Flamengo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.