Wales · FAW Championship · North - 813:30

13:30 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 02:25 UTC

Mold Alexandra vs Llanuwchllyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.71 expected goals for Mold Alexandra and 1.32 for Llanuwchllyn, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Mold Alexandra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

Mold Alexandra to Win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.71 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Mold Alexandra win67%
Draw17%
Llanuwchllyn win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams to score68%

Correct score

  • 2–18.6%
  • 3–17.8%
  • 2–06.6%
  • 1–16.4%
  • 3–05.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Mold Alexandra home form

    10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Mold Alexandra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.71 goals for Mold Alexandra and 1.32 for Llanuwchllyn, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Mold Alexandra

  • 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holyhead Hotspur · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Guilsfield · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Caersws · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-06-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Airbus UK · 3-4 (L)

Llanuwchllyn

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.