Moreirense vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.95 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Moreirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Moreirense to Win

50.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.53 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Moreirense win51%

Draw26%

Casa Pia win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.9%
1–112.2%
2–09.8%
2–19.3%
0–08.4%

Why the model likes this

Moreirense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moreirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Moreirense and 0.95 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Moreirense

2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)

Casa Pia

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.