Nacional vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Nacional and 1.25 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

GIL Vicente or Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nacional win32%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–112.2%
1–010.5%
0–09.8%
1–28.2%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Nacional and 1.25 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
GIL Vicente or Draw is the headline pick at 68% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Nacional

GIL Vicente

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.