Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Napoli and 0.81 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Napoli to Win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.79 – 0.81

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Napoli win61%

Draw23%

Fiorentina win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.2%
2–011.9%
1–110.8%
2–19.6%
0–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Napoli and 0.81 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Napoli to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Napoli

Fiorentina

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.