USA · Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 623:30

4 – 2

Saturday, 4 April 2026

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Victor Rivas, USA · Analysis updated 06:16 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for New York Red Bulls and 2.64 for FC Cincinnati, a combined total of 5.09. That distribution gives FC Cincinnati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

FC Cincinnati or Draw

62.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.45 – 2.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

New York Red Bulls win38%

Draw18%

FC Cincinnati win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals88%

Over 3.5 goals75%

Both teams to score85%

Correct score

2–26.4%
2–35.7%
1–25.3%
3–25.3%
2–14.9%

Why the model likes this

New York Red Bulls home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cincinnati to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 38% / 18% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for New York Red Bulls and 2.64 for FC Cincinnati, a combined 5.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 85%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

New York Red Bulls

2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-24T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)

FC Cincinnati

2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-04T23:45:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.