Nice vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nice and 2.01 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Marseille to Win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.19 – 2.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nice win22%

Draw22%

Marseille win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.7%
0–28.2%
0–18.2%
1–36.6%

Why the model likes this

Nice home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Nice and 2.01 for Marseille, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Nice

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.