Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee N. Bensalah · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 1.02 for San Diego Wave W, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives NJ/NY Gotham FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.2%
Why the model likes this
NJ/NY Gotham FC W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NJ/NY Gotham FC W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 1.02 for San Diego Wave W, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
- 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs San Diego Wave W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Thorns W · 2-2 (D)
San Diego Wave W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 43 |
| 2 | Utah Royals W | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave W | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 33 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns W | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 31 |
| 6 | North Carolina Courage W | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 30 |
| 7 | Kansas City W | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
| 9 | Angel City W | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Boston Legacy W | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 20 |
| 13 | Houston Dash W | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -6 | 20 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 19 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -11 | 17 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 19 | 4 | 1 | 14 | -25 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.