Stadium Metallurg · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC
Nosta vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nosta and 2.76 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 26% of the time.
Model pick
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to Win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 2.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–38.3%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–16.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 11% / 15% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Nosta and 2.76 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 59%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to Win is the headline pick at 74% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Nosta
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 53 |
| 2 | KDV | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Akron II | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| 6 | Orenburg II | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Izhevsk | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Dinamo Barnaul | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -22 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | -8 | 20 |
| 10 | Ural II | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -10 | 19 |
| 11 | Nosta | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -29 | 14 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.