Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Orlando City SC and 2.28 for New York City FC, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives New York City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

New York City FC to Win

53.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Orlando City SC win27%

Draw20%

New York City FC win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.6%
1–17.6%
2–26.8%
1–36.6%
2–16.0%

Why the model likes this

New York City FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Orlando City SC and 2.28 for New York City FC, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Orlando City SC

New York City FC

2026-08-13T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.