Palmeiras vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.13 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras or Draw

68.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras win42%

Draw27%

Flamengo win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.2%
0–19.4%
2–18.6%
0–08.3%

Why the model likes this

Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flamengo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Palmeiras and 1.13 for Flamengo, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Palmeiras

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)

Flamengo

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.