Arena Barueri · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 05:31 UTC
Palmeiras vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.76 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.
Model pick
Palmeiras to Win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.8%
Why the model likes this
Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Palmeiras and 0.76 for Gremio, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)
Gremio
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.