Patronato vs Quilmes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Patronato and 1.00 for Quilmes, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Quilmes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Quilmes or Draw

71.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.81 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Patronato win29%

Draw33%

Quilmes win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

0–116.3%
0–016.3%
1–113.3%
1–013.2%
0–28.2%

Why the model likes this

Patronato home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quilmes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 29% / 33% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Patronato and 1.00 for Quilmes, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Patronato

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Colon Santa Fe · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Y Tiro · 1-1 (D)

Quilmes

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	25	15	4	6	8	49
2	Deportivo Moron	24	13	5	6	17	44
3	Colon Santa Fe	25	11	9	5	13	42
4	Almirante Brown	24	10	8	6	6	38
5	Godoy Cruz	23	10	7	6	7	37
6	Deportivo Madryn	23	9	9	5	8	36
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	25	8	10	7	-1	34
8	Los Andes	23	8	9	6	9	33
9	CA Estudiantes	24	8	8	8	0	32
10	Racing Cordoba	24	8	6	10	-5	30
11	Atletico Mitre	25	6	11	8	-4	29
12	San Miguel	24	6	11	7	-4	29
13	Defensores De Belgrano	24	5	11	8	-5	26
14	All Boys	24	4	12	8	-9	24
15	San Telmo	23	5	8	10	-6	23
16	Central Norte	23	5	8	10	-9	23
17	Chaco For Ever	23	5	7	11	-7	22
18	Acassuso	24	5	7	12	-11	22
1	Tristan Suarez	23	11	9	3	11	42
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	24	12	5	7	6	41
3	Atlanta	24	12	3	9	5	39
4	Midland	24	10	8	6	9	38
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	24	10	7	7	4	37
6	Temperley	24	9	10	5	3	37
7	Atletico DE Rafaela	25	9	8	8	-1	35
8	Deportivo Maipu	24	9	5	10	5	32
9	San Martin Tucuman	24	7	10	7	2	31
10	Colegiales	24	8	6	10	-2	30
11	Almagro	25	8	6	11	-8	30
12	Quilmes	24	7	8	9	3	29
13	Nueva Chicago	23	7	8	8	-2	29
14	Agropecuario	25	7	8	10	-6	29
15	San Martin S.J.	22	7	7	8	0	28
16	Chacarita Juniors	23	7	5	11	-6	26
17	Patronato	24	4	12	8	-8	24
18	Club Atlético Güemes	24	5	5	14	-22	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.