Pirin Razlog vs Belasitsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 2.44 for Belasitsa, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Belasitsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Belasitsa to Win

53.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.72 – 2.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Pirin Razlog win27%

Draw19%

Belasitsa win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–28.0%
2–26.9%
1–16.5%
1–36.5%
2–15.6%

Why the model likes this

Pirin Razlog home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belasitsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Pirin Razlog and 2.44 for Belasitsa, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Pirin Razlog

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Germaneya · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)

Belasitsa

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	2	2	0	0	4	6
2	Septemvri Simitli	2	2	0	0	3	6
3	Septemvri Sofia II	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Bansko	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Strumska Slava	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Belasitsa	2	1	0	1	1	3
7	Levski Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	Botev Ihtiman	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Kostinbrod	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Slavia Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Kyustendil	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Oborishte	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	CSKA Sofia III	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Natsional Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Chavdar Etropole	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Slivnishki geroy	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Balkan Botevgrad	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Pirin Razlog	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.