Stadion Polonii · Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa and 0.73 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Polonia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Polonia Warszawa to Win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Lechia Gdansk away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 0.73 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Polonia Warszawa
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Głogów | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pogoń Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Podbeskidzie | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzów | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.