Loftus Road · Analysis updated 03:29 UTC
QPR vs Charlton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for QPR and 1.50 for Charlton, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives QPR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
QPR to Win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates QPR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for QPR and 1.50 for Charlton, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
QPR to Win is the headline pick at 49% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
QPR
Charlton
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.