Estadio El Sardinero · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Racing Santander vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.45 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Racing Santander the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Racing Santander or Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Racing Santander home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Santander to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Racing Santander and 1.45 for Celta Vigo, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Racing Santander
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 0-2 (L)
Celta Vigo
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.