World · UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round18:30

11

Thursday, 13 August 2026

Ibrox Stadium · Referee V. Fotias · Analysis updated 21:38 UTC

Rangers vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rangers and 2.00 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Jagiellonia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Jagiellonia to Win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rangers win18%
Draw21%
Jagiellonia win61%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 0–110.0%
  • 0–210.0%
  • 1–110.0%
  • 1–210.0%
  • 0–36.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Jagiellonia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.00 goals for Rangers and 2.00 for Jagiellonia, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Jagiellonia to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Rangers

    Jagiellonia

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.