· Analysis updated 22:50 UTC
Rathfriland vs Loughgall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Rathfriland and 1.99 for Loughgall, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Loughgall to Win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.4%
Why the model likes this
Loughgall away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loughgall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Rathfriland and 1.99 for Loughgall, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Rathfriland
Loughgall
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rathfriland · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dollingstown · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.