Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.23 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Rayo Vallecano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Rayo Vallecano or Draw

68.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rayo Vallecano win42%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.9%
2–18.9%
0–18.4%
1–27.5%

Why the model likes this

Real Sociedad away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Vallecano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.23 for Real Sociedad, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)

Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.