Real Cundinamarca vs Popayan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Real Cundinamarca and 1.13 for Popayan, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Popayan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Popayan or Draw

69.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Real Cundinamarca win31%

Draw30%

Popayan win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–114.1%
1–113.4%
0–012.6%
1–011.9%
0–27.9%

Why the model likes this

Real Cundinamarca home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Popayan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Real Cundinamarca and 1.13 for Popayan, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Real Cundinamarca

2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Popayan · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Águilas Doradas · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Pereira · 0-1 (L)

Popayan

Head-to-head

2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 3-1 Popayan (Primera B)
2026-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-1 Popayan (Primera B)
2025-11-20T20:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2025-11-07T01:20:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2025-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2025-03-17T20:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2024-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 2-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2024-03-17T20:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 1-0 Popayan (Primera B)
2023-09-01T21:00:00.000Z · Real Cundinamarca 0-1 Popayan (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Envigado	25	14	6	5	15	48
2	Internacional Palmira	24	13	8	3	14	47
3	Real Cartagena	26	12	8	6	11	44
4	Quindio	24	12	7	5	10	43
5	Union Magdalena	23	12	6	5	15	42
6	Bogota FC	24	7	9	8	-3	30
7	Barranquilla	23	7	6	10	-1	27
8	Ind. Yumbo	18	6	8	4	3	26
9	Tigres FC	23	6	7	10	-4	25
10	Patriotas	17	5	6	6	-2	21
11	Orsomarso	17	5	6	6	-3	21
12	Real Cundinamarca	18	3	8	7	-4	17
13	Popayan	18	3	8	7	-6	17
14	Leones FC	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Depor FC	18	1	8	9	-13	11
16	Real Santander	18	1	6	11	-18	9
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	3	2	1	0	4	7
2	Leones FC	3	2	1	0	2	7
3	Real Cartagena	3	1	1	1	2	4
4	Patriotas	2	1	1	0	2	4
5	Real Cundinamarca	3	1	1	1	1	4
6	Envigado	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Orsomarso	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Bogota FC	3	1	1	1	0	4
9	Popayan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Quindio	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Depor FC	3	0	2	1	-2	2
12	Internacional Palmira	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Real Santander	3	0	2	1	-4	2
14	Barranquilla	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tigres FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Union Magdalena	2	0	1	1	-1	1

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.