Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 2.09 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Real Madrid to Win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.23 – 2.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad win22%

Draw21%

Real Madrid win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–29.7%
1–19.3%
0–27.9%
0–17.5%
1–36.8%

Why the model likes this

Real Sociedad home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 21% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Real Sociedad and 2.09 for Real Madrid, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 2-1 (W)

Real Madrid

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.