Ukraine · Druha Liga · Regular Season - 414:00
RebelLW

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:56 UTC

Rebel vs Metalurh Zaporizhya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rebel and 1.57 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Rebel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Rebel or Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rebel win43%
Draw23%
Metalurh Zaporizhya win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams to score66%

Correct score

  • 1–19.7%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–27.7%
  • 2–26.9%
  • 1–06.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rebel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.79 goals for Rebel and 1.57 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Rebel or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Rebel

    Metalurh Zaporizhya

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.