· Analysis updated 23:56 UTC
Rebel vs Metalurh Zaporizhya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rebel and 1.57 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Rebel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Rebel or Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rebel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Rebel and 1.57 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Rebel or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Rebel
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Nyva Ternopil II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Ruh Lviv | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Vilkhivtsi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Oleksandria II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | SC Poltava 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Penuel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Karbon Cherkasy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Rebel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Lozova | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Atlet | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.