Renofa Yamaguchi vs Roasso Kumamoto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.02 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Renofa Yamaguchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Renofa Yamaguchi or Draw

71.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Renofa Yamaguchi win44%

Draw28%

Roasso Kumamoto win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–012.7%
0–19.8%
0–09.6%
2–18.6%

Why the model likes this

Roasso Kumamoto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Renofa Yamaguchi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.02 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Renofa Yamaguchi

Roasso Kumamoto

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-3 (L)
2026-06-06T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2/J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	11	5	2	17	43
2	Blaublitz Akita	18	11	2	5	9	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	8	4	6	6	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	8	3	7	7	29
5	Sagamihara	18	7	5	6	-2	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	6	4	8	-10	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	6	2	10	-5	22
8	Tochigi City	18	5	4	9	-13	21
9	Vanraure Hachinohe	18	4	6	8	-4	20
10	Tochigi SC	18	4	5	9	-5	18
1	Ventforet Kofu	18	10	3	5	8	35
2	Consadole Sapporo	18	9	2	7	4	31
3	Iwaki	18	7	6	5	4	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	9	2	7	10	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	6	9	3	4	30
6	FC Gifu	18	8	3	7	-2	28
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	6	6	6	10	26
8	Jubilo Iwata	18	5	6	7	-7	25
9	Fukushima United	18	4	4	10	-13	18
10	Parceiro Nagano	18	3	5	10	-18	16
1	Kataller Toyama	18	10	5	3	13	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	9	5	4	4	35
3	Tokushima Vortis	18	9	3	6	14	32
4	Kochi United	18	8	4	6	2	30
5	Ehime FC	18	8	3	7	7	28
6	Kanazawa	18	5	7	6	-6	27
7	Nara Club	18	5	4	9	-9	21
8	Osaka	18	3	8	7	-3	20
9	Imabari	18	5	4	9	-4	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	5	3	10	-18	19
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	2	1	24	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	8	5	5	8	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	8	6	4	10	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	7	5	6	2	29
5	Roasso Kumamoto	18	8	2	8	0	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	6	5	7	-4	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	6	3	9	0	22
8	Biwako Shiga	18	6	2	10	-13	21
9	FC Ryukyu	18	2	7	9	-12	17
10	Kitakyushu	18	4	3	11	-15	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.