Belle Vue · Analysis updated 01:33 UTC
Rhyl vs Caersws Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rhyl and 1.43 for Caersws, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Rhyl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
Rhyl to Win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–06.5%
Why the model likes this
Rhyl home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caersws away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rhyl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Rhyl and 1.43 for Caersws, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Rhyl
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Caersws · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Porthmadog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Guilsfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Llandudno · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 2-3 (L)
Caersws
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Rhyl · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gresford Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mold Alexandra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Denbigh Town · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Newport City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Aberystwyth Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | llanelli AFC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Porthmadog | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brickfield Rangers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Guilsfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Rhyl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Mold Alexandra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Ruthin Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.