Rio Ave vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Rio Ave and 1.22 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Maritimo or Draw

72.9% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rio Ave win27%

Draw29%

Maritimo win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–114.7%
1–113.2%
0–012.0%
1–010.8%
0–29.0%

Why the model likes this

Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 27% / 29% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Rio Ave and 1.22 for Maritimo, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Rio Ave

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 3-0 (W)

Maritimo

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela Calheta · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.