USA · NWSL Women · Group Stage02:00

02:00 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

Snapdragon Stadium · Analysis updated 00:50 UTC

San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.27 for Utah Royals W, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Utah Royals W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Utah Royals W or Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Diego Wave W win36%
Draw27%
Utah Royals W win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams to score52%

Correct score

  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 1–28.1%
  • 2–18.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Utah Royals W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.26 goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.27 for Utah Royals W, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Utah Royals W or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

San Diego Wave W

    Utah Royals W

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      NWSL Women table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1NJ/NY Gotham FC W2013431343
      2Utah Royals W2011361236
      3Washington Spirit W1911351236
      4San Diego Wave W201037433
      5Portland Thorns W19946431
      6North Carolina Courage W18936630
      7Kansas City W20938330
      8Seattle Reign FC W18837027
      9Angel City W17737724
      10Denver Summit W19667024
      11Orlando Pride W197210-623
      12Boston Legacy W19559-620
      13Houston Dash W18558-620
      14Bay FC W195410-719
      15Racing Louisville W185211-1117
      16Chicago Red Stars W194114-2513

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.