Snapdragon Stadium · Analysis updated 00:50 UTC
San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.27 for Utah Royals W, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Utah Royals W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Utah Royals W or Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utah Royals W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for San Diego Wave W and 1.27 for Utah Royals W, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Utah Royals W or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
San Diego Wave W
Utah Royals W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 43 |
| 2 | Utah Royals W | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave W | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 33 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns W | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 31 |
| 6 | North Carolina Courage W | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 30 |
| 7 | Kansas City W | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
| 9 | Angel City W | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Boston Legacy W | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 20 |
| 13 | Houston Dash W | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -6 | 20 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 19 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -11 | 17 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 19 | 4 | 1 | 14 | -25 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.