Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Santos and 1.45 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense or Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Santos win31%

Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.2%
1–28.9%
1–08.5%
0–27.4%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Santos and 1.45 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Atletico Paranaense or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Santos

Atletico Paranaense

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.