Sao Paulo vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 2.00 for Gremio, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Sao Paulo or Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sao Paulo win40%

Draw21%

Gremio win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–17.3%
1–27.3%
2–17.3%
2–27.3%
1–34.9%

Why the model likes this

Sao Paulo home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Paulo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 2.00 for Gremio, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sao Paulo

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-1 (L)

Gremio

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-2 Gremio (Serie A)
2026-02-12T00:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2025-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-2 Gremio (Serie A)
2025-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio (Serie A)
2024-12-01T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-2 Gremio (Serie A)
2024-07-17T23:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2023-10-21T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 3-0 Gremio (Serie A)
2023-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-2 Gremio (Serie A)
2021-12-02T23:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-3 Gremio (Serie A)
2021-08-15T00:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.