· Analysis updated 03:34 UTC
Sárbogárd vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Sárbogárd and 2.00 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws roughly 27% of the time.
Model pick
Pécsi MFC to Win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 0–216.4%
- 0–310.9%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–18.2%
Why the model likes this
Sárbogárd home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 8% / 19% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Sárbogárd and 2.00 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Sárbogárd
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-02-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paksi SE II · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dombóvári · 1-6 (L)
Pécsi MFC
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | PTE-PEAC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencváros II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Budafoki LC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Budaörs | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| 8 | Iváncsa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Siofok | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Paksi SE II | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Majosi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunaujvaros FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Sárbogárd | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 16 | Szekszárd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.