· Analysis updated 05:48 UTC
Sevilla vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.09 for Getafe, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Sevilla to Win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–16.8%
Why the model likes this
Sevilla home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Sevilla and 1.09 for Getafe, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Sevilla
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
Getafe
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.