Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.18 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Sparta Rotterdam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Rotterdam to Win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–17.1%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.18 for Utrecht, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T15:45:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-17T12:30:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-03T13:30:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-4 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-12T12:30:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2023-11-26T15:45:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2023-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2023-06-01T19:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · Sparta Rotterdam 0-3 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.