Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 714:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 19 September 2026

· Analysis updated 02:53 UTC

Spartak Plovdiv vs Gigant Saedinenie Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.61 for Gigant Saedinenie, a combined total of 4.26. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv to Win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.65 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win60%
Draw18%
Gigant Saedinenie win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals61%
Both teams to score74%

Correct score

  • 2–18.0%
  • 3–17.1%
  • 2–26.4%
  • 1–16.0%
  • 3–25.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Spartak Plovdiv home form

    12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Head-to-head goals

    Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 18% / 22% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.65 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.61 for Gigant Saedinenie, a combined 4.26 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
  • 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
  • 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
  • 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Gigant Saedinenie

    Head-to-head

    • 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 3-2 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 1-0 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 0-1 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2024-11-23T12:30:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 2-1 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 1-1 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2023-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 3-0 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 4-1 Gigant Saedinenie (Cup)
    • 2023-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 1-0 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2022-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 1-1 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)
    • 2021-02-20T12:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 0-6 Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.