Spartak Plovdiv vs Maritsa Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 2.26 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Maritsa Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Maritsa Plovdiv to Win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.47 – 2.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win25%

Draw20%

Maritsa Plovdiv win56%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–29.0%
1–18.0%
1–36.8%
2–26.6%
0–26.1%

Why the model likes this

Spartak Plovdiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 25% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 2.26 for Maritsa Plovdiv, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Maritsa Plovdiv

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nesebar	36	29	4	3	94	91
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	36	23	6	7	50	75
3	Neftochimic Burgas	36	19	9	8	14	66
4	Yambol 1915	36	20	6	10	31	66
5	Levski Karlovo	36	20	5	11	11	65
6	Maritsa Milevo	36	17	9	10	32	60
7	Spartak Plovdiv	36	15	9	12	6	54
8	Sozopol	36	16	6	14	12	54
9	Sayana Haskovo	36	15	7	14	4	52
10	Zagorets	36	13	10	13	-8	49
11	Rozova dolina	36	14	6	16	-7	48
12	Gigant Saedinenie	36	14	5	17	-3	47
13	Rodopa Smolyan	36	14	4	18	-19	46
14	Atletik Kuklen	36	13	3	20	-35	42
15	Sekirovo Rakovski	36	9	8	19	-23	35
16	Dimitrovgrad	36	10	5	21	-40	35
17	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	36	9	6	21	-9	33
18	Rakovski 2011	36	8	3	25	-48	27
19	Asenovets	36	6	5	25	-62	23

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.