Spartak Plovdiv vs Rozova dolina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.36 for Rozova dolina, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv to Win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win57%

Draw20%

Rozova dolina win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.4%
3–16.9%
2–06.9%
2–26.3%

Why the model likes this

Spartak Plovdiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.36 for Rozova dolina, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Rozova dolina

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodopa Smolyan	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Spartak Plovdiv	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Levski Krumovgrad	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Maritsa Milevo	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Yambol 1915	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Sayana Haskovo	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Botev Plovdiv II	1	1	0	0	2	3
8	Atletik Kuklen	2	1	0	1	1	3
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Rozova dolina	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Neftochimic Burgas	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Sekirovo Rakovski	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Zagorets	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Dimitrovgrad	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Gigant Saedinenie	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Sozopol	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Levski Karlovo	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.